金融危机下出口退税政策有效性的评价
佚名 2015-02-14
变量
检验式( c t k)
ADF检验值
1%显著性水平
5%显著性水平
10%显著性水平
结论
LOG(EXCHANGE)
( c t 0)
-0.813513
-4.394309
-3.612199
-3.243079
非平稳
LOG(EXPORT)
( c t 3)
-3.365875
-4.467895
-3.644963
--3.261452
非平稳
LOG(GDP)
( c t 3)
-2.316127
-4.467895
-3.644963
-3.261452
非平稳
LOG(PRICE)
( c t 1)
-1.918041
-4.416345
-3.622033
-3.248592
非平稳
LOG(TAX)
( c t 0)
-3.610510
-4.394309
-3.612199
-3.243079
非平稳
D(LOG(EXCHANGE))
( c t 0)
-5.203728
-4.416345
--3.622033
-3.248592
平稳
D(LOG(EXPORT))
( c t 0)
-4.785919
-4.416345
--3.622033
--3.248592
平稳
D(LOG(GDP))
( c t 5)
-4.030638
-4.571559
-3.690814
-3.286909
平稳
D(LOG(PRICE))
( c t 0)
-4.754756
-4.416345
-3.622033
-3.248592
平稳
D(LOG(TAX))
( c t 0)
-4.553160
-4.416345
-3.622033
-3.248592
平稳
Hypothesized
Trace
Hypothesized
Max-Eigen
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Statistic
No. of CE(s)
Eigenvalue
Statistic
None *
0.754867
83.84450
None *
0.754867
32.33699
At most 1 *
0.587521
51.50750
At most 1
0.587521
20.36810
At most 2 *
0.545912
31.13940
At most 2
0.545912
18.15765
At most 3
0.430204
12.98175
At most 3
0.430204
12.93698
At most 4
0.001945
0.044768
At most 4
0.001945
0.044768
Trace test indicates 3 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
Coefficient
Std. Error
z-Statistic
Prob.
C(1)
-12.59103
9.501778
-1.325124
0.1851
C(2)
-2.998297
0.341472
-8.780505
0.0000
Final State
Root MSE
z-Statistic
Prob.
SV1
-0.497261
0.509468
-0.976040
0.3290
SV2
0.375948
0.635484
0.591592
0.5541
SV3
1.629741
0.246098
6.622311
0.0000
SV4
0.352327
0.050773
6.939252
0.0000
Log likelihood
-34.43856
Akaike info criterion
2.915085
Parameters
2
Schwarz criterion
3.012595
Diffuse priors
4
Hannan-Quinn criter.
2.942130
